I’ve received much feedback on my last two posts, generally indicating that many of you, my dear readers, don’t fully “get t”….I apologize. Let me try to make it up to you.
That said, I’ll try my best to condense these very complex topics and concepts, remove the noise and break it down to the simplest possible terms. Don’t feel frustrated if you don’t “get it” at first…it’s not you. The brightest minds on the planet don’t fully understand my work, primarily because they are not looking for what I’m seeing and/or don’t believe that what I’m describing could actually ever happen. I assure you all, it can and if our leadership doesn’t understand it and stop it, it will…
For those of you who know me, you also know I’ve always been a relatively “binary” person…while fully acknowledging the gradients, shadows and unknowns permeating just about every aspect of our lives, I’ve always found when designing a tree for complex decision making, it helps to think of things in absolute, “black vs. white”, “yes vs. no”, “up vs. down”, “love vs. hate”, terms, etc. just to get a feel for what’s going on and the direction(s) it can turn.
The following is the simplest way I can think of to describe what’s happening. All figures discussed are, of course, actual values, rounded to the nearest few trillion US Dollars ….
As always, out of respect for your time, key points are in RED….feel free to skip over my highly entertaining economic comedy if it isn’t your cup of tea.
Key Takeaways:
1.) We will discuss the interaction between the only two “investors” that matter (Mr. Cash and Mr. Market) and the FED.
2.) We will describe the outcome of the two monetary scenarios, “Ideal Scenario #1” (smoothly providing market liquidity proactively) and the “Not So Ideal Scenario #2” (the bumpy road of providing liquidity retroactively) currently being implemented, interchangeably, by the FED.
3.) We will discuss the, unavoidable dollar depreciation inherent in following these two scenarios at a pace in excess of other major economies/markets/currencies. We will describe how US Dollar liquidity has recently surpassed that of other major money supplies by a wide margin, effectively providing the money and fueling the corresponding financial asset growth for the world.
4.) We will describe preventive measures to avoid the potential, eventual collapse of the Western financial system in the “Financial War is hell…Scenario #3”, such as Countermeasures and capital controls which may or may not be currently under consideration by the FED and Treasury.
5.) Today, by my calculation, the Chinese Communist Party, through surrogates, LLCs and agents has care custody and control over roughly $35 Trillion of Western Financial Assets and likely significant influence over nearly twice that level. (i.e. other Money Managers pay significant attention to whether these Chinese Controlled entities and whales are buying or selling.)
6.) We discuss Mutually Assured Financial Destruction (MAFD) detente’, whereby both the Chinese Communist Party and America’s policy makers fully understand each other’s capabilities and limitations, preferring a mutually conceded stalemate, knowing full well that any type of “financial first strike” would be a near fatal blow to both nation’s economic prospects.
7.) So there you have it, in my binary world, either the FED and the Treasury (Jay and Janet) have no idea what’s going on and they will continue to blindly “follow the data” providing liquidity either proactively (smoothly) or re-actively (bumpy) eventually destroying the value of the dollar and transferring America’s global leadership and wealth to the Chinese Communist Party; or, alternatively and hopefully, Jay and Janet are brilliant, tough strategic thinkers who understand the threat, have already designed stealth countermeasures as described, ready to deploy at the first sign of the offensive, sinking the CCP financial ships in the channel and saving America and the West from eventual Chinese Communist domination.
8.)If Janet and Jay don’t already fully understand this and hopefully, have it well under control, for the sake of the world, we can only pray that they figure it out and “get it” before it’s too late. If they don’t, there are those out there, who are much less compassionate and forgiving than I am, who might just interpret this as the greatest, most incompetent, blunderous policy pursuit in Central Banking history. After all, everyone makes mistakes, but implementing decades of incredibly bad, more of the same, policy that eventually destroys Western civilization……well that’s quite an ooopppssy daisy…
Mr. Cash vs. Mr. Market
Let’s say, hypothetically, that the financial world is comprised of just two investors, who we will refer to as “Mr. Cash” and “Mr. Market”. Mr. Cash, is a very conservative old curmudgeon, (not unlike yours truly) who loathes risk and keeps his money in his mattress. He doesn’t care all that much about earnings and asset appreciation. He just wants to sleep well at night. Mr. Market, on the other hand, is a swashbuckling risk-taker, in it for the long haul. He looks to the future with enormous, unbridled optimism under any and all circumstances. Mr. Market never met a stock, bond or derivative he didn’t like…at any price. He’s all-in, all day…every day.
Let’s further say that the world currently has about $450 Trillion of Financial Assets. (stocks/bonds/loans & Money/M3, etc …excluding China, of course, since they don’t provide the exact/accurate figures to work with) with about 1/3rd of those Financial Assets denominated (priced) in US Dollars. (Again, all of the figures I reference in this post are actual “big round numbers”)
America’s $150 Trillion is further broken down into roughly $90 Trillion of debt securities (Bonds, Loans, Mortgages etc.) $40 Trillion of Stocks/Equities and about $20 Trillion of cash (M3….deposits, CDs, T-Bills, etc.)
Of course, Mr. Cash owns all of the $20 Trillion of America’s dollar deposits and money….and Mr. Market owns all of the $130 Trillion of stocks and bonds.
One morning, Mr. Market wakes up, rolls out of bed and he realizes he’s not getting any younger, has been riding the wave for years, but for some reason, he has a teeney-tiny bout of uncertainty, building to a minor panic attack…his hands tremble…he starts thinking…what have I done?… and he says to himself:
“I don’t know….something just doesn’t feel right. I’m not all that sure that it’s still a good idea to be totally concentrated in US risk assets….perhaps I’ll trim my positions, sell some stocks and bonds and put 15% ($20 Trillion) in cash/dollars….then I’ll decide where to invest those dollars later…..yeah…that’s what I’ll do…seems reasonable…”
“Ideal” Scenario #1
The night before he sells his assets, Mr. Market, just to be sure his sale goes off without a hitch, calls Jay Powell on his red-phone-hot-line at the FED and talks his plan through:
“…you know, Jay, I’d really like to sell $20 Trillion (15% of $130 Trillion) of my stocks and bonds at the current market price tomorrow, but there’s not enough cash out there to buy them…..could you do me a favor and print some up?….Mr. Cash said he would only spend about $10 Trillion, I guess he only has $20 Trillion and he’s saying that he wants to use the rest of the cash to support the ‘real US economy’ instead of asset prices… or some such nonsense like that…you know, Mr. Cash can be a real party pooper sometimes….anyway, Jay, old buddy old pal, so can you do me a solid and print up about $10 Trillion tonight? …just loan the money to Mr. Cash so he can stop whining and buy my stocks & bonds?…thanks man…you are the best”
Of course Jay thinks through the ramifications and obliges. He prints the money and loans it to Mr. Cash…here are the relative financial positions for Mr. Cash & Mr. Market after this nice orderly sale of 15% of America’s Financial Assets at “market price”.
As you can see, everything goes just fine, because there’s enough cash in the system to sell the Financial Assets at market prices to Mr. Cash. Jay Powell and his FED once again have saved the day. Mr. Market was able to sell his $20 Trillion of Financial Assets to Mr. Cash for $20 Trillion. Mr. Cash’s Assets increase and he has a $10 Trillion loan to pay back (at some point) to Jay. Mr. Cash still has $10 Trillion in cash left to run the economy and he now also owns $20 Trillion of Financial Assets for a total of $30 Trillion. Mr. Market now has $20 Trillion in cash and $110 Trillion in Financial Assets (stocks & bonds) totaling $130 Trillion. Both US and Global Financial Assets increase by $10 Trillion (the FED’s new loan) to $160 Trillion and $460 Trillion respectively. At some point, if Mr. Market wants to spend his new $20 Trillion of US Dollars on Financial Assets he can either buy them back from Mr. Cash, or perhaps spend his $20 Trillion on a foreign currency (Euros, Yen, etc.) so he can buy some of the $300 Trillion of non-US-global/foreign financial assets. Perhaps Mr. Market will actually create create brand new IPOs or SPACS and he can take his new cash and buy these brand new, hot-off-the press financial assets on margin….creating even more financial assets (margin loans and IOU’s are, of course, also financial assets). In any case….everything is in balance…All is well!…
If we take a look at what’s happened over the last decade or so, this is exactly what’s been going on. With a few uncomfortable fits and starts, the FED has met Mr. Market’s liquidity needs “Johnny”, or should I say, “Janet and Jay” on the spot. Generally speaking, Financial Assets have been sold at “market” with very little disruption…because, even with a few hiccups, there’s always been enough cash in the system to meet Mr. Market’s needs and support increasing (or stable) security prices. The main point here is that, because of all of the passive accelerator forces and Billy Hwang wanna-be’s hiding in plain sight out there, as I had described in my Gamestop Post, the level of trading/selling volume necessary, in relation to the uncommitted money supply, to cause a significant, spiraling sell-off is shrinking by the day. i.e.) a 5% movement from risk assets to cash could cause a 15% correction in short order. Again, to emphasize, if there isn’t enough cash in the system immediately, as we’ve seen from time to time, the selling becomes, what they refer to as “disorderly”.
“Not So Ideal” Scenario #2
Now, let’s say that for whatever reason, Mr. Market doesn’t call Jay and let him know what he’s up to. Perhaps Mr. Market is in a big hurry or has other things on his mind? Perhaps he is frightened and he wants to get out of his stocks and bonds immediately because Mr. European Market or Mr. Japanese Market might be doing something unexpected or stupid? Maybe he just needs the cash? Maybe Jay is just sick of Mr. Market waking him up in the middle of the night and decides not to take his call? So Mr. Market decides to sell his $20 Trillion of assets, but since there isn’t enough cash in the system, he has to sell his Assets for just $10 Trillion to Mr. Cash and he’s willing to take a $10 Trillion loss. Not so bad in the grand scheme of things….but let’s take a look at what Mr. Cash’s and Mr. Market’s financial position looks like after the transaction.
Notice that we start out in the same place. $150 Trillion of Financial Assets split between Mr. Market with $130 Trillion and Mr. Cash with $20 Trillion. This time, since Jay isn’t around to help out, when Mr. Market goes to sell his $20 Trillion of Financial Assets (just 15% of his holdings) he can only get $10 Trillion from Mr. Cash. That’s all Mr. Cash will pay for Mr. Market’s stocks and bonds. Mr. Market goes ahead with the transaction since he is desperate and takes the $10 Trillion dollar loss. Unfortunately, that’s not where it ends. Because Mr. Market can no longer sell any assets (Mr. Cash doesn’t have enough money to buy them) he realizes that they aren’t worth as much, so he has to “mark them to market” because the silly accountants and exchanges will make him do it. Mr. Market not only has a loss of $10 Trillion in the transaction, he also has a loss of 50% on the remaining $110 Trillion he owns. The value of these risk assets is reset and Mr. Market books a loss of $55 Trillion. When the dust settles, Mr. Cash has $20 Trillion split evenly between cash ($10 Trillion) and his new stocks and bonds ($10 Trillion). Mr. Market now has $10 Trillion of cash he didn’t have before, but he only has $55 Trillion of Financial Assets for a total of $65 Trillion. (i.e. $130 Trillion less the $20 Trillion sold, plus the $10 Trillion Cash… and less the $55 Trillion “mark to market” loss) Further note that Total US Assets have declined to $85 Trillion from $130 Trillion (a 35% loss of value), reducing the value of Global Financial Assets by the same amount down to $385 Trillion from $450 Trillion…..all because Jay Powell didn’t print $10 Trillion when Mr. Market needed it. Jay!….what in the world were you thinking??!!
Let me be clear, under current US economic conditions “Ideal Scenario #1” and “Not So Ideal Scenario #2” are (along a severity/volume spectrum) the ONLY monetary policy options available to Jay and the FED today under the “binary” operating model. (i.e “to print…or not to print…that is the question“. So far, Jay has chosen to print.)
Here’s the bad news:
What the above chart describes is, a comparison of US M3 and Central Bank Balance Sheet Assets (money) with the same metrics for the European Union and Japan (money) converted at the then current, appropriate exchange rate. All figures are provided by the St Louis FED Data Store (FRED):
1.) These three currencies (USD, Euro and Yen) account for roughly 85% of all cross border transactions and floating currency value on the planet.
2.) In roughly a year and a half US M3 and the FED Balance sheet (money) has increased from $19 Trillion to $27 Trillion (43.6%) while Japan (BOJ/Yen) increased their money from $12 Trillion to $14 Trillion (rounded) or (13.8%) and the Europeans (ECB/Euro) from $11 Trillion to $12 Trillion (rounded) or (5.5%).
3.) Most (73%) of the new money created during the period was in US Dollars ($8 Trillion of the $11 Trillion created), yet the price of the dollar held relatively constant against other currencies, declining only 3.4% since the beginning of the period.
4.) If the growth rate of all currencies remained constant there would be no change in their respective values or exchange rate. The growth rates are not constant, yet the exchange rates are holding within a given range.
5.) Since the Chinese currency (Yuan) is closed and is not used outside of mainland China in any material manner, i.e.) the Chinese economy is financed internally, we’ve properly excluded the Yuan from the analysis. However, the Chinese economy has been the world’s largest net exporter for years. The Chinese government and its surrogates have been anonymously accumulating and using Western/floating currency and assets as an embedded store of value for international investment, payment and trade for decades. Therefore, the Chinese Communist Party has effective control over significant Western Financial Assets trading in Western Financial Markets and on Western Exchanges. (My estimate is currently $35 Trillion)
Like any commodity, when the supply becomes more abundant, if demand remains constant, the relative value (price) should decline. In the case of the dollar, at least for now, it hasn’t. i.e.) Demand must have increased, therefore the price has not declined. The FED has been creating dollars to meet the demand presented by Mr. Market and Mr. Cash. Dollar demand hasn’t been coming from the US domestic economy (velocity has been declining…Main Street America isn’t spending money). The Europeans, the Japanese, the Brits, or really any other major Western (floating currency) Economy has not materially increased its thirst for dollars (or we would likely see an increased/corresponding demand for their domestic currency first, exchanging it for dollars). We can only conclude that there is only one other significant, material source of dollar demand in the world today. Stealth, disguised, Dollar demand, by default, must be increasing almost exclusively from China’s activities and intervention in Western markets.
Therefore:
When the Chinese Communist Party decides to direct its surrogates and agents around the globe to buy dollars and invest in US Financial Assets, dollar demand increases and both the dollar and Asset Prices strengthen simultaneously. Conversely, when the CCP sells dollars and invests in “something else” the relative value of the dollar, as well as dollar denominated financial assets, must decline.
Various Scenarios….
Moving forward on my “binary” decision tree train of thought….
“Ideal” Scenario #1 – The FED proactively expands the money supply as asset values continue to grow. The amount of “printing” will be dependent on the subtlety of the asset buy/sell cycles. The value of the dollar will decline in relation to the ratio of expansion/increases over other currencies, and/or declining dollar denominated Financial Asset demand. i.e.) the dollar must decline over the long term as the relative supply increases and relative demand contracts.
“Not So Ideal” Scenario #2 – The FED reacts to Financial Asset prices, expanding the money supply, back filling as needed. This will be more disruptive as the buy/sell Financial Asset cycles will be more significant/violent. These “pump & dump” cycles with the FED response replenishing liquidity and therefore, asset value after the fact, will also be more beneficial to those who understand it and profit by it. Yet, the dollar will decline long term similar to the “Ideal Scenario #1” above.
In both cases above, the outcome is the same, the dollar devalues as the money supply expands and wealth is transferred disproportionately from America to “somewhere else”. The path and timing is just a bit different. Either of these paths will effectively usher in the stealth demise of the American Dream and the death of Western finance and democracy (I know, that last statement was a bit harsh, but it’s exactly what’s going to happen). From my vantage, it’s not fully clear which path (Scenario #1 of #2) we’re on, but on the other hand, in the grand scheme of things it also seems irrelevant, since they both lead to the same place.
Scenario #3 – “Financial War is hell…”
In my humble analysis, whether we choose to publicly admit it or not, we’ve been involved in global financial warfare ever since the Great Financial Crisis, when Hank Paulson, while looking for someone/anyone to buy Treasury Bonds, accidentally showed the Chinese Communist Party how to destroy the Western Financial System. Fast forward to today, under the accidental cover of a coincidental COVID pandemic which somehow found its way from Wuhan around the world, the CCP has launched the financial/economic equivalent of a Normandy invasion on the US Financial System and the dollar. This would explain, at least for now, why US Financial Asset values continue to rise simultaneously with money supply expansion and yet the dollar remains rock solid. The Chinese are hoarding dollars and “investing” in America.
That said, I’m secretly hoping that everything I’ve seen over the years has actually been a highly choreographed, controlled exercise in global financial warfare conducted by our Treasury, the CIA and the FED. I’m hoping that America’s financial leadership is somehow well aware of everything I’ve been discussing and has deployed significant, currently dormant, sleeper-counter-measures, financial battlefield surveillance and cold war fail-safe-dead-man switches to ensure things don’t spiral out of control.
In Don Rumsfeld-speak, I really hope that our experts at the FED and Treasury:
“…know exactly what the CCP thinks we don’t know even though they don’t know what we don’t know….further if they didn’t know what they thought we knew, it would only be because we didn’t want them to know what they thought they knew…”
That said, I also really hope, just like we would on a battlefield, that we’ve surveilled, identified and are tracking the platoons of assets, battalions of accounts and regiments of ShellCos… and that we are prepared to take strategic action related to seizing, freezing and neutralizing these assets, accounts, ShellCos and devices:
- SWIFT Account identification and restrictions on all Chinese Bank Branches operating in all Western Jurisdictions. We should have already developed alliances and agreements with the ECB, BOJ and BOE to immediately close off capital flight and freeze movement.
- Agreements and mechanisms with the 8 US GSIB Banks (JPM, WFC, BAC, C, GS, MS, BNY, STT) to identify, freeze and confiscate accounts and Assets beneficially owned and/or controlled by CCP interests, pending legal review and due process.
- Agreements with DTCC and the 18 (non-US and non-Chinese) Western GSIB Banks to freeze Chinese controlled Financial Assets held on deposit or in custody at the direction of the Treasury.
- Agreements with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA) to identify and freeze, at the direction of the US Treasury, the portion of the roughly 20,000 LLCs and Trusts which are controlled by Chinese Investors acting on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party.
- Enter into similar agreements, as those implemented with the CIMA, as is practical, with other tax haven jurisdictions as is necessary.
- Identify US based Hedge Funds and Money Managers with significant relationships and ties to Chinese funding and investors. Enter into “Hotel California” agreements with these managers requiring that the Chinese Investors can check out anytime they like, but their money can never leave. (Similar to the tools the CCP uses to prevent Western investment from leaving Mainland China)
- There are likely many other countermeasures the Treasury, SEC, Justice Department, the FED and IRS could effectively deploy once our technical experts put their heads together. The ultimate goal would be to prevent dollars from being used against American interests, similar to the way the CCP has walled off its currency, the Yuan, preventing it from being used against China’s National interests.
Ideally, like the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) detente’ environment some of us grew up in, the existence of the above capabilities, with the Chinese Communist Party having full understanding that these tools both exist and that the US Treasury will not hesitate to use them, in the absence of any miscalculation, should prevent the CCP from launching any “first strike coordinated sell orders” against US Financial Assets currently under their control. In other words, Financial MAD should buy us some time to get our house in order.
This MAD detente’ if properly pursued could provide a 1950’s style stalemate road map where neither America nor China have a decided strategic advantage, punctuated with Cuban Missile Crisis-esque and Bay of Pigs–like standoffs from time to time, with the alternating thrust and parry of diplomatic gamesmanship. As long as “we both know what they think we don’t know” with mutual certainty, the world will remain in stasis and the American and Chinese political ambitions and philosophies will remain deadlocked at bay. We’ll continue on, separated by oceans, as immutable forces struggling against immovable objects. It won’t matter which is which, the role of object and force will be played by interchangeable actors in due course, but the war of financial attrition will drag on until, decades from now, either America or the Chinese Communist Party silently, without fanfare, will emerge and be declared the “winner” by virtue of their uninterrupted existence.
As investors, to continue the cold war analogy, you and I will be relegated to watching this melodrama unfold, as we take whatever precautions we deem necessary. Like the good old days when I was a little boy in grade school, doing the “A-Bomb” drills and hiding under my desk when the siren went off, as investors, all we can do is try to understand the threat, “duck and cover” and make the best decisions we can, while hoping our leadership does the same.
The End Game
So there you have it, in my binary world, either the FED and the Treasury (Jay and Janet) have no idea what’s going on and they will continue to blindly “follow the data” providing liquidity either proactively (smoothly) or re-actively (bumpy) eventually destroying the value of the dollar and transferring America’s global leadership and wealth to the Chinese Communist Party; or, alternatively and hopefully, Jay and Janet are brilliant, tough strategic thinkers who understand the threat, have already designed stealth countermeasures as described, ready to deploy at the first sign of the offensive, sinking the CCP financial ships in the channel and saving America and the West from eventual Chinese Communist domination.
Of course, like the results the CCP has already achieved in Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc. this type of war is difficult to detect and fight. There are no burning buildings, explosions, mass casualties or dead soldiers on the beachhead. There’s nothing to “rally the troops”. There’s no smoking gun nor is there a wildly mismanaged, incompetent, easy to pinpoint, out of control virology lab. It’s “just money”. The only indicators or evidence we have of CCP immanent success is the massive influx of influence and the whole-hearted, enthusiastic support from our Bankers, think-tanks, lawyers, politicians, big business and media. Like Tibet, Hong Kong and soon Taiwan, once the politicians, media and bankers are coerced and paid, or disappear from the landscape if they become too troublesome, the “war” can be sanitized and re-framed as a simple peace keeping action, restoring the order, a mundane but necessary exercise to keep the disgruntled, non-conforming rabble in line. Perhaps some of us will end up in massive XinJiang-esque re-education camps, newly built in Iowa where we learn the error of our ways. This, my fellow Americans, is how a democracy dies…not with a bang, but with a whimper. There won’t be a war or global conflagration. There won’t be an obvious crossing of the red line. Our democracy can only fail if we continue to move the red-line or give up on drawing one all together. The more we sell out and fail to define the absolute limits of what we won’t accept, the more likely it is that we will lose our ability to identify our disintegration and resist it.
Mr. Market’s Family Photos
On a lighter note….for those of you who don’t know Mr. Market, according to his propaganda department, one of his financial advisors/managers comes off as a really fun-loving competitive guy. Personally, since I like to think I’m a relatively competitive guy myself, I’ve always felt that it’s really important to understand my competition and get a feel for what I’m truly up against. Background research, knowing the opposition, understanding his strengths and weaknesses is an absolute must….Here’s Mr. Market’s Biggest Money Manager (BMM) shopping for US Financial Assets…
Mr. Market is always looking for bargains….
The photo below is Mr Market’s BMM “dumping” the Assets as I had discussed above ….Today, again, by my calculation, Mr. Market’s BMM has care custody and control over roughly $35 Trillion of Western Financial Assets and likely significant influence over nearly twice that level (i.e. other Money Managers pay a lot of attention to Mr. Market’s BMM). As we now know with certainty, Mr. Market’s BMM is a very calculating fellow, each one of these cycles is worth hundreds of billions, if not trillions to him. He’s always trying to be the first one out of the burning theater, not afraid to occasionally, enthusiastically yell fire when he’s nearing the exit, while the Muppet-money tends to stay firmly in their seat, buying the dip along with their popcorn, waiting for the movie to end as the FED and Mr. Cash run, yet again, a tad short of funding and scramble to restore order…
Finally, the family photo below shows Mr. Market flaunting all of the money he’s made from these “cyclical pumps & dumps” and the burgeoning trade balances he’s had with the West, built up over decades….he’s ready, willing and able to begin shopping for bargains, redeploy the funding and start the cycle all over again….
Of course, there are many “helpers” out there who are cheering Mr. Market on, primarily because they are making container ships full of money off of Mr. Market’s effort and the FED’s enormously accomodative policy. Why in the world would anyone want the party to stop?
If Janet and Jay don’t already fully understand this and hopefully, have it well under control, we can only hope, for the sake of the world, that they figure it out and “get it” before it’s too late.
Moreover, if Jay does indeed “get it” and he knows exactly what he’s up against, is holding pocket aces, and is ready to seize assets, deploy countermeasures and call the Chinese Communist bluff…….based solely on his 60 Minutes pitch tonight, he’s the greatest poker player in history.
However, and more worrisome, if Janet and Jay are indeed “following the data” and flying blind, there are those out there, who are much less compassionate and forgiving than I am, who might just interpret this as the greatest, most incompetent, blunderous policy pursuit in Central Banking history. After all, everyone makes mistakes, but implementing decades of incredibly bad, more of the same, accomodative policy that eventually destroys Western civilization.. ….well that’s quite an ooopppssy daisy…